Plumbline
RESEARCH

The mortgage industry measures volume obsessively and almost nothing else.

Thesis

Whether a file is business-purpose or consumer gets decided once, early, by someone moving fast. That one call sets pricing, disclosure, which investors will touch it, and whether the deal is worth working at all.

The compliance exposure from getting it wrong is discussed in every shop. The revenue lost getting it wrong in the other direction — pricing a business-purpose file like a consumer file and eating the spread — has no alarm attached to it. Nobody calls. It never appears in a report.

Lead generation has the same shape. Everyone counts volume. Almost nobody can say what a lead was worth, or separate an at-bat from a conversation worth having.

Plumbline Research measures these things and publishes what it finds, including the parts that contradict what I believed going in.

In preparation
  1. What share of misclassifications are caught internally?

    Measured in both directions, against what each miss costs rather than only what it risks.

  2. Where does the 1–4 unit investor line actually sit?

    The cases that get treated wrong in both directions, and the reasoning that puts them there.

  3. What does a qualified lead cost, end to end?

    Volume reporting against the real cost of the conversations that produce a funded file.

  4. Which origination rules of thumb survive measurement?

    Starting with the ones repeated most often and sourced least.

The list

Each piece goes out by email when it's finished. No schedule, no newsletter furniture, no reading time estimates.

Who
Background
Over a decade in mortgage, the last seven running origination sales organizations — most recently around 30 consultants, before that a 150-person operation across sales and fulfillment.
Method
CFA charterholder. I build the systems I write about: the lead engines, the scoring, the execution infrastructure underneath them. Not describing someone else's pipeline from the outside.
Licensing
Licensed in 15 states. NMLS #867870. Nothing on this site is an offer of credit, a rate quote, or advice on a specific transaction.